國際旅館產業資訊&趨勢

台灣錯失與全球同步的復甦趨勢? 在艱困中見逐步成長的全球旅館業動能進行式

台灣旅宿業錯失與全球同步的產業復甦趨勢? Oh, no! (Photo Credit: ShutterStock)
*筆者：台灣想趕搭經濟復甦順風車？或許有機會，但前提是全民施打新冠肺炎疫苗的佔比多少，國民免疫能力有多少，而其他國家是否認可台灣的疫苗接種證明。當去年已達麻木程度的「境外移入」以及「輸出到國外的確診案例」三不五時冒出，已開始令人發毛。台灣疫情在今年第二季大爆發的一切發展似乎有種「因果報應」(karmic retribution)之感，冥冥之中千瘡百孔的問題硬是被掀開，幾滴(口)祕密的茶水(a little secret tea)加上自吹自擂的(vaunted)態度就瓦解掉疫情防線，讓時代雜誌撰文批判。當全球許多國家在去年經歷極度慘痛的新冠肺炎疫情代價後，因疫苗自去年底前陸續問世，截至目前為止，越來越多地區、國家已有相當顯著的防疫成效，而這也表示更進一步的經濟復甦與發展動能已是進行式。台灣曾幾何時從去年同期的「Taiwan can help.」變成今年的「Taiwan needs help.」？去年是天災，今年只有人禍。
              台灣旅宿業者請領政府補助與紓困只能救急(近幾年已經蠻多次，只是形式各異)，短期來看，最起碼先要國民旅遊動能回歸，之後再陸續接軌回全球旅遊市場，才是根本之計，而這一切都需要仰賴那小小玻璃瓶中的新冠肺炎疫苗，接種率越高，越有機會換得「經濟復甦列車」的車票，畢竟這二年的殘酷選擇題「要餓死或是病死」至今仍是進行式，惟有疫苗是解答。台灣目前無法像美國一樣幾乎隨時隨地都可以打疫苗，甚至不限制是否為本國籍，除了因為台灣當前的疫苗數量不足以供全民施打外，還有接種的先後順序限制，於是「求生意志」所帶來的人心浮動，又將是另一個社會考驗。(→近日的「好心肝事件」已足以說明，而「赴美接種疫苗」似成為美國公開招攬各地旅客的手段，當台灣已不像去年那麼安全，總是有人會想方設法以求活命。)
              本文是先前曾在五月下旬的一則臉書專頁貼文所提及之內容，雖然內容有大內宣兼大外宣之嫌，然而從全球最大酒店集團的角度去看國際旅館業的動態與趨勢，不失為一個可行的切入點。新冠肺炎大流行所造成的影響前所未有，因為過去還不曾有國際旅行因疫情而幾近全球性中斷外加封鎖國境的狀況，因此藉由去年迄今的局勢演變所做的未來推估，是有其必要性與一定程度的可信。下方的訪談與報導文章各一，其所呈現的國際旅遊業現況是有樂觀面可預期與期待的，一切皆因疫苗的接種比率上升或疫情受到相當程度的控制而有「本事」樂觀。反觀台灣當前的窘境，最快能在何時我們有足夠的疫苗供全部的人民施打，而不用考量優先順序？ 時間對我們不利 (Time is against us.)，儘快亡羊補牢，人命關天。Peace!
Trends in China Give Marriott Executives Confidence in Global Recovery
(中國的市場趨勢使萬豪集團高層對於全球產業復甦有信心)
Overall Travel Demand Grows As Vaccinations Increase
(整體旅遊需求因疫苗接種增加而成長)

May 10, 2021 | 10:56 P.M. Hotel News Now by Bryan Wroten
Marriott International opened more than 23,500 rooms globally during the first quarter of 2021. The JW Marriott Hotel Shanghai Fengxian, which opened in February, was the 50th Marriott hotel to open in Shanghai. (Marriott International) 萬豪集團於2021年第一季在全球各地已有超過23500間客房開幕營運。今年二月開幕的上海奉賢JW萬豪酒店是萬豪集團在上海第50個據點。

As more people receive one of the available COVID-19 vaccines, demand has been rebounding, Marriott International CEO Tony Capuano said.
萬豪集團執行長東尼 ‧ 卡普阿諾表示，由於更多人接種了第一劑新冠肺炎疫苗，旅遊需求已開始反彈上升。

Speaking during Marriott’s first quarter 2021 earnings call, Capuano said more than 95% of the company’s hotels are open globally and worldwide occupancy has improved each month this year.
萬豪集團執行長東尼 ‧ 卡普阿諾在2021年集團第一季的財報電話(視訊)會議中表示，萬豪集團95%全球酒店據點已恢復營運，而今年全球據點的住房率每月都在增長、改善。

“In March, we saw the largest month-over-month sequential increase in global occupancy since the beginning of the pandemic,” he said.
卡普阿諾說：「今年三月我們已看到全球的住房月增率是自新冠肺炎疫情大爆發以來的最大連續增長。」

Occupancy grew to more than 45%, an increase of 9 percentage points over February, he said. Global occupancy grew again in April to about 48%.
他接著說，全球住房率至三月為止成長超過45%，而三月較二月增加了9個百分點。到了四月，全球住房率又再提升至48%左右。

The recovery in Mainland China is encouraging, Capuano said. While several markets were under strict lockdowns in January and February, demand recovered quickly once COVID-19 cases were under control and restrictions relaxed. Occupancy was 66%, almost flat compared to March 2019.
卡普阿諾表示，中國大陸酒店市場的復甦狀況是令人感到鼓舞的。當部份酒店市場在一、二月還處於嚴格的封城令時，一旦新冠肺炎確診案例已受到控制、相關限制禁令趨緩，旅遊住宿需求復甦得很快。

“Despite limited international travel into Mainland China, we saw robust demand from both leisure and business guests in March,” he said. “Leisure transient room nights were above pre-pandemic levels for the third quarter in a row. Business transient room nights surpassed the pre-pandemic levels in March, up 5% versus March 2019.”
他說：「即便前往中國大陸的國際旅遊受限，我們在三月已看到來自休閒與商務遊客的強勁住房需求。以休閒為目的的短期房晚數已經高於2019年疫情爆發前第三季的水準。至於商務短期房晚數，若與2019年三月相比，今年三月也已超越疫情前的同期水準高達 5%。」
Group room nights in March were still behind March 2019 levels. Demand in this segment grew significantly after restrictions on large gatherings were lifted, he said.

不過，今年三月的團體客住房數仍落後於2019年三月的同期水準。萬豪集團執行長東尼 ‧ 卡普阿諾表示，團體客群的住宿需求在大型集會的禁令解除後顯著成長。

“Seeing these trends in Mainland China running near pre-pandemic levels gives us confidence in strong, full recoveries across all customer segments in other regions as conditions improve,” he said.

卡普阿諾接著說：「當我們看到中國大陸這些市場走向已接近疫情大爆發前的水準，這會帶給我們信心─ 當局勢改善時，其他區域也會有強勁且全面的市場復甦。」
Demand has picked up quickly at Marriott’s hotels in countries that have had early and swift vaccine rollouts, such as the U.S., the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, Capuano said. The same is also true in markets where airlift has improved or travel restrictions have relaxed, such as Mexico, Macau and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
卡普阿諾表示，在一些早期已開始接種疫苗的國家中，其境內的萬豪集團據點可見住宿需求快速增長，比方像是美國、阿拉伯聯合大公國(阿聯酋)及卡達。同樣的情況也發生在空中運輸改善及旅遊禁令放寬的旅遊市場，如墨西哥、澳門及美屬維京群島。
Room demand continues to be heavily weighted to leisure, but the resilience of overall demand is clear, he said. When the European Union announced it expects to open its borders to vaccinated U.S. travelers this summer, Marriott’s reservation centers saw “an immediate surge” in call volume, he said. Occupancy in the U.S. has also increased. The U.S. and Canada region had the second-highest occupancy in March at 49%, just behind Greater China.
「雖然目前住房需求持續偏重在休閒客群，然而整體的住房需求之復原泰勢是明確的。當歐盟宣佈今年夏天預期將迎接已接種疫苗的美國旅客之際，我們的訂房中心就看到了瞬間湧進的訂房電話量，而美國據點的住房率也增加。美加地區今年三月的住房率49%已是全球第二高，僅次居於大中華區的住房率。」
Corporate and group bookings in the U.S. and Canada remain meaningfully below pre-pandemic levels, but they are recovering, Capuano said. In March, special corporate bookings for all future stays exceeded February’s bookings by 25%, the largest sequential monthly increase in this customer segment since the start of the pandemic. April’s bookings grew by 13% over March.
萬豪集團執行長東尼 ‧ 卡普阿諾說，美加區的公司與團體訂房仍低於疫情前的水準，但正復甦中。而在三月，習慣預訂未來全部所需住宿的特殊公司訂房已達25%，已超過二月的訂房量，而從新冠肺炎疫情大流行起，此類公司也是連續數月均為最大增長之客群。今年四月的訂房成長以13%超過三月的訂房程度。
Group bookings in the U.S. and Canada continue to pick up as meeting planners are increasingly optimistic about the recovery and feel more confident they can plan events, especially in 2022 and beyond, Capuano said. By the end of the quarter, group revenue on the books for 2022 was down less than 15% compared to pre-pandemic levels as compared to group revenue on the books at the end of the first quarter of 2019 for 2020.
卡普阿諾接著說，由於會展策劃人員日趨樂觀看待經濟與產業復甦，加上越來越有信心舉辦會展活動，尤其在2022年以後，因此美加地區的團體訂房持續預訂進來。而以今年第一季為止的數據來看，2022年登記在案的團體客群收益之下降程度，若與疫情前相比，2020年第一季衰退率(Quarter over Quarter，QoQ)與2021年第一季衰退率對照，後者還不到15% (→比較不差之意，即「有挺住在某一程度」)。
“Perhaps more importantly, rates for group room nights booked in the first quarter for 2022 and 2023 are currently 6% and 10%, respectively, above pre-pandemic levels, demonstrating that we are not trading rate for occupancy,” he said.
卡普阿諾說：「或許更重要的是，2022年及2023年第一季的團體房價分別上升6%及10%，均超過疫情前的水準，這現象表示我們不是以降低價格以求高住房率。」

Development (酒店開發)

Marriott added more than 23,500 rooms globally during the quarter, according to an earnings release. That includes nearly 12,000 rooms in international markets as well as roughly 7,300 conversion rooms.
根據第一季財報公布的資訊來看，萬豪集團在今年第一季於全球新增超過23500間客房。這數字其中包括國際旅館市場近12000間客房以及品牌轉換而來約7300間客房。
By the end of the quarter, the company’s worldwide pipeline totaled 2,800 properties representing about 491,000 rooms. Of those, 18,000 are approved but not subject to signed contracts. More than 222,000 rooms were under construction by the end of the quarter.
截至今年第一季為止，萬豪集團在全球各地的新開發案總數有2800間酒店，共計491000間客房數。這其中18000間客房所屬開發案已有意向書(LOI)或備忘錄(MOU)但尚未簽訂合約，而另有超過22000間客房所屬開發案正在興建中。
The pace of signings has picked up and is dramatically better than it was for most of 2020, Capuano said. Conversion activity was particularly strong, he said, citing the nearly 7,000-room all-inclusive resort conversion deal with Sunwing Travel Group.
萬豪集團執行長東尼 ‧ 卡普阿諾說，2021年酒店開發案的簽約進度已經增速，甚至比2020年大部份的狀況好得太多。品牌轉換的開發案尤其增長強勁，比方像是總部位於加拿大多倫多的Sunwing旅遊集團已跟萬豪集團簽下總客房數近7000間的全包式渡假酒店之品牌轉換開發案。
“Given our impressive roster of conversion-friendly brands and the meaningful benefits associated with being part of the Marriott system, we expect our momentum around conversions will continue,” he said.
卡普阿諾說：「因為萬豪有令人印象深刻的適合換牌之酒店品牌名單以及作為萬豪集團一份子所帶來的有意義之利益關係，我們期待在品牌轉換這個領域的動力會持續下去。」
The numbers of rooms added to the system during the quarter was a 60% increase compared to the first quarter of 2020, he said. Of those, 31% were conversions, the highest percent in any quarter in six years.
「若與2020年第一季相較，今年第一季的新增客房總數上升了60%，而其中有31%來自於酒店換牌，這個數據是近六年以來各季最高成長幅度。」
Looking forward, Marriott expects gross rooms growth could accelerate to about 6% and net rooms growth could be about 3% to 3.5%, Capuano said. While there are some delays in construction starts, 45% of Marriott’s pipeline is under construction.
卡普阿諾接著說，展望未來，萬豪集團期待總體客房數成長率能增加至6%左右，而淨客房數成長率能有3~3.5%的程度。即便仍有酒店興建工程受到延宕，但45%的萬豪集團開發案已在施工中。
The expectation for net rooms growth includes the one-time 100-basis-point headwind from the 88 Service Properties Trust — or SVC— hotels that left the system, he said.
「淨客房總數成長的預期還需計入來自過去以酒店物業為主的房地產投資信託基金(REIT)公司 Service Properties Trust (或稱SVC)所投資的88間萬豪集團酒店佔比1%之阻力。」
“We look forward to replacing the mostly limited-service, first-generation SVC hotels with newer products and are already in active discussions for new deals in nearly three quarters of the portfolio’s markets,” he said.
「我們期待能以新酒店物件來替換掉SVC公司早期大部份所投資的精選服務型酒店之標的，而我們已用近三季的時間積極討論投資標的市場中的新交易。」

By the Numbers (數字解析)

During the first quarter, Marriott reported comparable systemwide constant-dollar revenue per available room dropped 46.3% year over year worldwide, according to its earnings release. Similarly, it fell 46.3% in the U.S. and Canada and 46.1% in international markets.
根據萬豪集團第一季的財報電話(視訊)會議內容所示，在2021年第一季期間，以定值美元評判的平均每間可供出租客房收入(RevPAR)與2020年同期比較下降了46.3%。同樣地，萬豪集團在美加市場及國際市場的收益也分別下滑46.3%及46.1%。
Compared to the first quarter of 2019, comparable systemwide constant-dollar RevPAR fell 59.1% worldwide. It dropped 57.1% in the U.S. and Canada and declined 64.1% in international markets.
若再與2019年第一季做同期相比，萬豪集團平均每間可供出租客房收入下降59.1%。在美加市場及國際市場的收益也分別下滑57.1%及64.1%。
Worldwide occupancy reached 37.7% during the quarter, a 15.3% decrease compared to the first quarter of 2020. Occupancy in Mainland China neared its pre-pandemic level with 66% in March. In the U.S. and Canada, occupancy started at 33% in January and reached 49% by March.
萬豪集團第一季的全球平均住房率達37.7%，相較於去年(2020年)同期則減少15.3%。在中國大陸的平均住房率則已接近疫情爆發前的水準，三月份住房率為66%。至於美加地區的平均住房率在一月份是33%，而在三月底前已達49%。
The company reported a net loss of $11 million during the quarter compared to net income of $31 million in the first quarter of 2020. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization totaled $296 million in the first quarter compared to $442 million during the same period in 2020.
若以2020年第一季3100萬美金的淨收入相較，萬豪集團今年第一季則是淨損1100萬美金。至於今年第一季的調整後税息折舊及攤銷前利潤(Adjusted EBITDA)為2億9600萬美金，而去年同期則是4億4200萬美金。
Net liquidity totaled about $4.7 billion by the end of the first quarter. Broken down, that amounts to $600 million in available cash balances and $4.1 billion of unused borrowing capacity under its revolving credit facility.
截至第一季為止的淨清算值約47億美金。此數額若再細分，其中6億美金為可用現金餘額，41億美金則是周轉貸款未用的融資能力。
Marriott has been working closely with its owners to control costs at hotels given their low occupancy levels, said Leeny Oberg, executive vice president and chief financial officer. Together, they’ve been able to reduce hotel break-even occupancy levels significantly, she said. Many of Marriott’s initiatives to streamline operations and improve productivity, such as more efficient management and staffing levels, will remain in place after the pandemic to help offset wage inflation.
萬豪集團執行副總裁暨財務長 Leeny Oberg表示，萬豪集團有鑒於酒店低住房率的狀況已密切與業主們研議成本管控。她說，業主已能顯著地降低達成收支平衡所需的住房水準。許多萬豪集團所提出精簡營運與增進生產效益的措施，比如更有效率的管理方式與人員編制方面，在疫情後仍將繼續以協助抵消工資膨脹問題。
The company is assessing post-COVID-19 renovations and brand standards to find more ways to improve hotel profitability while also preserving the quality and experiences gusts expect, she said.
Oberg接著說，萬豪集團正評估後疫情時代的酒店翻修與品牌標準相關事宜以找出更多改善酒店獲利能力的方法，同時也保留住顧客所預期的酒店品質與體驗。
The operating environment over the last year has been challenging, but most of the hotels in the system continue to pay their bills, Oberg said.
她說，去年整體的酒店營運環境一直是充滿嚴峻挑戰的，不過集團旗下大部份的酒店都仍持續支付他們的管銷費等費用。
“We have even seen the number of hotels on payment plans come down meaningfully over the last several months as occupancy has improved,” she said.

「當酒店住房率改善之際，我們在過去幾個月已看到有償付計劃的酒店業者數量下降，而這帶有指標上的意義。」

As of press time, Marriott’s stock was trading at $142, up 8% year to date. The NASDAQ Composite Index was up 5% for the same time period.

截至媒體發佈止，萬豪集團股價為142美金，今年迄今為止已上漲8% 。至於那斯達克綜合指數同期也上漲了5%。

[延伸閱讀]歐美喜迎夏日解封潮！推疫苗護照，樂園、旅館準備復甦，還有哪些新變化？

國內外旅客的自由移動與停留是全球旅館業的基石，期待全面解封的一天。

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