與病毒共存政策加速全球旅遊產業復甦 從萬豪集團2022年第一季財報看起

新常態之「與病毒共存」(圖片來源: 非營利組織)

*筆者按:筆者記得過去有網民(甚至媒體記者)曾酸說「國際連鎖酒店集團會受國際局勢、世界各地市場影響,像是這次新冠肺炎大流行,這些跨國企業自然會受到重大衝擊,反觀台灣本土飯店集團因為台灣防疫的『超前部署』,影響較低」,然而在2021年4月起的第二、三季,台灣「防疫的西洋鏡」被拆穿、破功,掀起疫情反撲的首波風暴,至於2022年4月起的新冠肺炎變種病毒株Omicron之第二波疫情風暴所導致台灣每日確診以數萬計,即便政府當局已不再實施疫情警戒三級(含)以上的措施,一般民眾也早已「自主升級」,減少不必要的外出遠遊以及餐飲場所內用,即便這二年多來曾有看似內需市場大好的光景,但整體來說台灣旅遊產業大傷,非短期就可恢復。於是,只用二年的時間就可親身驗證上述說法的「似是而非」,而美國疫管局也在近日將台灣的旅遊警戒升級到第三級「高風險國家與地區」,而且是從2022年5月初的「低風險」調升二次至「高風險」

相對地,由於國際連鎖酒店集團的全球佈局,即便疫情風暴是全面地,然而世界各地市場復甦與疫情控制程度與速度不同,某地區市場的好轉就能相對快速地挹注收益於集團中,減少受外在環境衝擊的程度,這在許多國際連鎖酒店集團這一、二年的財報與績效表現可以看得出來,雖然仍不比疫情前的2019年榮景,但差距已經越來越小,可以說是一種「風險分散」的策略(→當然,另一面向的解讀是「插旗全球」、「要賺全世界的錢」)。而在台灣,即便東部、南部與離島的渡假型旅館酒店與民宿在2020與2021年相對賺錢,但2021年與2022年的疫情二波反撲影響,正負相抵之下,能否普遍守住收益正值也是值得探究。「溫室」雖好,一旦有所閃失,也會倒一片,同時,也因為溫室的保護作用,世界大部份的地區(外在環境)不會感受到台灣旅館市場的影響(→台灣市場小仍是現實原因),這是一個「相對」的概念。

至於,這幾年不少本地業者紛紛表示要進軍國際(→尤其常見於股東大會舉辦或公司季報、年報公佈之前,似增利多消息),但,台灣人重情惜情,在島內可謂「人間處處有溫情」,到了國際市場就會是硬碰硬的現實比較:

(情境劇)

T1:「X董事長您好,很榮幸我們有這個機會能向貴公司做個簡報。」
O:「你好!台灣的XX飯店集團?請坐請坐。祕書有轉交名片給我,我剛剛才結束一個會議。說吧!你們這次來是想談什麼?」
T2:「我們這次是來推薦自家的新世代酒店品牌XXX與貴公司合作,這品牌主打多功能的大廳交誼與餐飲空間,客房具體而微,配置有新世代消費者所喜愛的行動裝置充電設備,可調整式的客房設計。我們在…」
(五分鐘後簡報突然被打斷)
O:「好,這樣就可以了。」
        (臉色略沉)「(清喉嚨)我就直說好了。我們目前在跟A、B、C三個集團品牌在談可能的合作機會,你們家的東西差別在哪裡?」
T2:「我們的客房都是採用台灣的文 ‧ 創 ‧ 商 ‧ 品,像是沐浴用品啊,桌椅與燈飾也是很有設計感的,還有那個…」
O:(再度打斷)「是嗎?這跟A、C品牌之前的樣子差不多,而且是十 ‧ 年 ‧ 前的。你說你們是台灣來的所以不一樣?(沒好氣地調出電腦內的資料) See? 這裡,這邊,還有那邊,還有……這個(指著圖片某一處),A、B、C品牌早就有,而且質感更好,所以你們是….模仿來著?再說,我們國內就有類似的產品,而A、B、C品牌都有提出他們的新版樣式,且他們有整套完善的營運模組可以直接套用,以及市佔比高的會員制度……」
T1:(有點急著解釋)「董事長,我們品牌的彈性很大,可以依你們的需求做設計更改,誠可議,誠可議……」
O:(一抺不失禮貌的微笑)「噢?所以你們沒有原則?」
(冷冷地看著業務代表,語氣和緩,但字字帶殺傷力)**「我們做生意的,無意與特定國家、地區市場為敵,我們也很歡迎台灣人來這裡玩、消費什麼的。坦白說,請你們來之前,我跟董事會以及物業開發部門討論過,他們覺得台灣有規模的業者,包括你們,整體產品還不夠好,感覺還停留在十幾二十年前的狀態,另外,你們不少是土地自購自建或承租土地自己開發,在與為數更多的開發商、地主、既存業者的案件評估能力,甚至商業談判、推廣能力上,我們是有些存疑的。『賺管理財』這事可不是隨便說說而已,你們的話術對一般民眾才有效,我們免疫。我們事前曾花時間研究過,也有聽過其他同業的看法。」
       「其實我個人有時也不太喜歡A品牌業者,在開會時偶爾不經意地流露出的驕傲感與氣勢,但他們的產品確實是不錯,一切都很明確,且提得出理性客觀的評估建議,言之有物,這我沒話說。要不是你們的態度這麼積極,可以特地飛過來,只為求一次簡報的機會,其他三家在這裡都有辦公室或分公司,其實我們原本只會在A、B、C之間擇一而已。」
O:(突然笑容可掬)「我們會再就目前看到的幾個提案作討論,就先這樣子。謝謝你們特地過來一趟。」(按下電話桌機通話鍵)「Iris」
I:(敲門後進入辦公室)「老闆,客人的計程車三分鐘後到,我送他們下樓到門口的時間差不多。」
O:「Good! Farewell, my friends!」
(十五分鐘後)
O:(內線電話)「Iris,幫我看一下這週的行程空檔,安排A、B的第二次簡報會議,剛才被他們一攪和,讓我對A、B的興趣又高了點。弄好了跟我講一聲。」
**筆者按:那種模樣大概可以用電影的特定一幕表現出來

本篇是繼去年「台灣錯失與全球同步的復甦趨勢? 在艱困中見逐步成長的全球旅館業動能進行式」的文章資訊更新。在這二年多市場變動劇烈的時期,從全球最大的酒店集團之角度以及該集團第一季財報所呈現的營運狀態來了解全球市埸的脈動,基本上算是恰當,雖然仍有宣傳之嫌,但就下方的報導敘述,可以了解他們務實與專業的一面。

Marriott CEO: ‘Live With COVID’ Policy Around the World Accelerates Recovery
(萬豪集團執行長:全球「與病毒共存」政策加速旅遊產業復甦)
Easing Restrictions, Return to Office Lift Travel Demand
(減輕禁令限制與返回辦公室上班拉擡旅遊移動的需求)

May 4, 2022 | 11:06 P.M.  Hotel News Now by Bryan Wroten

Marriott International opened the JW Marriott Bengaluru Prestige Golfshire Resort & Spa in the Nandi Hills region of Bengaluru, India, during the first quarter of 2022. (Marriott International)

Strengthening demand for both leisure and business travel, as well as the ability to drive rates, resulted in Marriott International’s hotels achieving revenue per available room just 9% below 2019 levels worldwide in the first quarter.
由於休閒及商務差旅的需求增強,連同拉抬房價的力道,使得萬豪集團在2022年第一季的平均客房收益僅小於2019年同期的 9%而已

Speaking during the global hotel brand company’s first quarter 2022 earnings call, Marriott CEO Tony Capuano said global demand rebounded swiftly after a brief COVID-19-related slowdown early in the quarter. Occupancy reached 64% in March, and average daily rate was 5% above March 2019.
萬豪集團執行長東尼 ‧ 卡普阿諾在2022年集團第一季的財報電話(視訊)會議中表示,在今年第一季稍早的短期疫情影響之後,全球住宿需求迅速反彈。今年三月的酒店住房率達64%,平均房價則高於2019年同期達5%。

COVID-19 is still affecting Marriott’s business to varying degrees around the world, but increasing vaccination rates, falling case numbers and less severe variants have led countries to cautiously adopt a “live with COVID” policy, and that has resulted in a rise in demand for travel, he said.
卡普阿諾執行長說,新冠肺炎疫情在全球市場的各個面向仍舊影響萬豪集團的生意,不過,持續增加的疫苗接種率,下降的確診個案數*及看似導致輕症居多的Omicron變異病毒使得各國謹慎地採納「與病毒共存」政策,這導致旅遊需求的上升。

*筆者按: 近日(五月中旬)世界各地的新冠肺炎確診個案數又再度有所變化與上升,或多或少、或長或短影響全球旅館業。

Leisure travel demand, which fully recovered in 2021, further strengthened in the first quarter with global room nights more than 10% above 2019 levels, Capuano said. The recovery of business transient and group demand still lags, but is rapidly improving as more employees return to the office.
卡普阿諾執行長指出,在2021年全面恢復的休閒旅遊需求進一步強化了2022年首季的住宿表現,因集團的全球總入住房晚數已高於2019年同期水準的10%。雖然短期商務差旅及團體的住宿需求之復原仍舊延遲,不過隨著越來越多公司員工返回公司上班後,住宿需求正快速轉好。

Day-of-the-week trends continue to show that trips that blend leisure and business are on the rise, he said. In March in the U.S. and Canada, hotel occupancy was down in the mid-teens Monday through Wednesday, and to single-digit percentages during the shoulder days of Thursday and Sunday, but occupancy on Fridays and Saturdays was nearly in line with March 2019.
他接著說,每週的日變化持續顯示結合休閒與商務的旅遊行程(即「bleisure」一詞的來源) 正在上升中。今年三月,美加地區旅館在週一至週三的住房率都在中十位數(約14%~16%左右),而週四與週日則是個位數的低檔程度,不過到了週五與週六,住房率則幾近於2019年三月的同期水準*。

*筆者按:住宿需求會以「low、shoulder、high」來表達「低、中、高的程度(或淡旺)」,此處不特別翻譯應較易於理解文意。

Cross-border guests accounted for 14% of global room nights in the first quarter, a gain of about 100 basis points compared to the previous quarter but below 2019’s share of 19%.
至於境外旅客(→應指北美區以外者)佔今年第一季全球房晚數的14%,相較於去年第四季(2021年Q4)為正增長,但低於2019年同期的19%。

The first quarter marked Marriott’s best quarter for direct digital bookings, which were up 14% compared to the first quarter of 2019, Capuano said.
卡普阿諾表示,就直效(接)線上訂房的面向來看,今年第一季是萬豪集團歷來表現最佳的一季,與2019年同期相較還多出14%。https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Kl8pBRuxU4

Domestic and International Performance(國內外的業績表現)

March RevPAR in the U.S. and Canada was within 4% of 2019 levels, Capuano said. Occupancy topped 68% in March and ADR was 6% over pre-pandemic levels.
萬豪集團執行長卡普阿諾表示,今年三月美加地區的平均客房收益與2019年同期水準差不到4%。至於平均住房率有68%之多,平均房價則是超過疫情前水準6%
“While the extent of RevPAR recovery still varies widely from city to city, overall progress during the quarter was widespread,” he said. “Across all chain scales as well as market types — that is primary, secondary and tertiary markets — RevPAR recovery saw meaningful improvement in March versus the fourth quarter.”
「雖然平均客房收益的恢復程度在各城市之間仍然差異很大,不過第一季的整體進展是全面的。在全集團及各規模市場(包括主要市場、二線市場及三線市場),平均客房收益的復甦在今年三月已看到有意義的改善與轉好,若對照去年第四季的話。」
The luxury segment was the standout in the first quarter with ADR 27% above pre-pandemic levels, he said. Group demand grew sharply in the quarter, resulting in group RevPAR 16% below March 2019 levels, an improvement from being down 30% in the fourth quarter of 2021.
卡普阿諾接著說,萬豪集團今年第一季在奢華品牌區塊有相當不錯的表現,平均房價高於疫情前水準27%。至於團體客層的需求在今年第一季成長亮眼,使得團體所帶來的平均客房收益僅低於2019年3月的水準16%,相比2021年第四季低於2019年3月的水準30%,算是進步。
Group bookings are on pace for a meaningful improvement through the remainder of 2022, Capuano said. By the end of the first quarter, group revenue pace for the year was down in the high single-digit range compared to 2019.
團體訂房量將在2022年的剩餘時間以有意義的增長逐漸步入正軌。截至2022年第一季,與 2019 年同期相較,今年團體收益的增長速度下降,僅有高個位數(7%~9%)的程度。
“We also expect additional short-term bookings to further boost group revenues,” he said. “April was the eighth month in a row where in-the-year, for-the-year group bookings exceeded 2019 levels.”
「我們也期待有新增的短期訂房進一步推升團體客層的收益。今年4 月是連續第八個月全年團體訂房數超過 2019 年的水平。」
Business transient demand in the U.S. also gained momentum, Capuano said. Business transient room nights were down 10% to 15% in the quarter compared to 2021, which marked a sequential improvement from the previous quarter. Bookings from special corporate accounts have recovered slower than those from smaller-sized businesses, but special corporate new bookings strengthened in March and further advanced in April.
卡普阿諾表示,美國短期商務差旅的需求也有了動能。今年第一季的短期商務差旅房晚數雖較2021年同期下降10~15%,但同時也顯示從去年第四季起是連續正成長。來自特定合約公司的訂房量較小型公司的訂房量來得復原緩慢,不過特定合約公司的新訂房量在今年三月有增強,四月又更一步增長。
Internationally, Marriott made gains in RevPAR recovery in every region except Greater China, Capuano said. In the Middle East and Africa, RevPAR surpassed 2019 for the second straight quarter, led by strength in the United Arab Emirates with the World Expo in Dubai that ran for several months.
他接著說,以全球市場來看,萬豪集團在每個地區的平均客房收益都有增長,除了大中華區以外。中東與非洲地區的平均客房收益連續二季(2021第四季及2022第一季)超過2019年同期,因阿拉伯聯合大公 (酋長) 國所舉辦的杜拜 (迪拜) 世界博覽會為期長達數月(2021/10/01 ~ 2022/03/31)。
In Greater China, RevPAR dropped significantly with the lockdown of several major cities, including Shanghai late in the quarter, he said.
在大中華區,平均客房收益顯著下滑,因數個大城市封城所致,包括第一季晚期的上海市(2022/03/28起)*。
*筆者按:西安市,吉林市、長春市、深圳市、東莞市等也曾在第一季陸續封城。
Marriott is keeping a close eye on trends in Europe, Capuano said. Outside of Russia, the war in Ukraine has not affected demand yet and cancellations have been minimal. As all countries in the region have removed or reduced travel restrictions, bookings in Europe have accelerated for the spring and summer travel seasons.
卡普阿諾執行長表示,萬豪集團持續關注歐洲局勢。在俄羅斯之外,烏克蘭境內的戰爭尚未影響到歐洲其他地區的住宿需求,且訂房取消數量很少。另外,歐洲所有國家已逐步解除或減低旅遊禁令,歐洲的訂房數已因春夏旅遊旺季而加速增長。
The company has closed its corporate offices in Russia and paused all future hotel development and new openings, he said. There are currently 23 properties open in the country, and occupancies are modest. Marriott continues to evaluate its operations in Russia, which represent less than 1% of its global fees, he said.
他接著表示,萬豪集團已關閉俄羅斯境內的集團辦公室並暫停所有未來的境內的酒店開發及新酒店開幕。目前,萬豪集團在俄羅斯境內有23間酒店,而住房率尚可。再者,集團仍持續評估在該國的營運策略,因該國整體管銷費的收益不到全球佔比的1%。
“We are watching the horrific humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and neighboring countries with deep concern, and we’re doing what we can to help those impacted in the region,” he said. “I’m very proud of our teams that have been mobilizing to help those in need in numerous ways, including working with relief partners and housing refugees at Marriott properties in neighboring countries.”
「我們正持續觀察與密切關注烏克蘭境內與鄰近國家所發生駭人的人道危機,而我們正盡力協助歐洲當地深受影響的人們。我非常自豪我們的工作團隊持續機動性地以各種形式幫助亟待救授的人們,包含與當地的救濟機構、團體合作以及在鄰近國家的萬豪集團據點提供收容避難的服務。」
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2LB4DdypUM

Hotel Development (旅館開發)

Marriott added approximately 11,800 rooms globally during the first quarter, according to the earnings release. That includes approximately 5,300 rooms in international markets and more than 2,500 conversion rooms.
根據萬豪集團所公佈的2022年季報新聞稿,萬豪集團在今年第一季全球新增約11800間客房數。這其中包含國際市場中約莫5300間客房數,另有超過2500間客房數是來自於更換品牌的酒店據點。
By the end of the quarter, the company’s worldwide development pipeline totaled nearly 2,900 properties with more than 489,000 rooms. That includes approximately 20,800 rooms approved but not yet subject to signed contracts. Approximately 201,400 rooms in the pipeline were under construction as of the end of the quarter.
截至今年第一季為止,萬豪集團全球的新開發合作案總計近2900件,總客房數超過48.9萬間。其中約20800間客房的開發案是核可但尚未正式簽約,還有約20.14萬間客房的開發案則是在興建中。
Marriott’s development pipeline continues to grow each month, Capuano said. The company signed 124 deals globally through March, a new first quarter record.
卡普阿諾執行長表示,萬豪集團的新開發合作案每個月都持續增長中,單就今年三月,集團就簽下124件開發合作案,破了歷年第一季的記錄。
“Despite construction timelines having lengthened a bit so far this year due to supply chain disruptions and labor shortages, we expect openings to ramp up each quarter in 2022,” he said.
「既便目前新酒店的興建時程受產業供應鍊中斷及勞工短缺的影響而有些延長,我們期待2022年每季都能有新酒店開幕數的增長。」
The average construction timeline for limited-service properties is slightly more than two years, and the timeline for full-service hotels is longer, he said. Over the next four years, Marriott expects gross rooms growth to approach 5% with deletions of 1% to 1.5%, resulting in net rooms growth of 3.5% to 4%.
他接著說,「精選服務型酒店的平均工程期大約耗時二年多一點,而全服務型酒店的平均工程期則要再久一些。在未來五年內,萬豪集團預期的總客房數增長率約略是5%,再考量平均刪減變動部份的1%~1.5%,實際上的淨客房增長率會是3.5%~4%。」
Financing has started to ease, new-construction starts have ramped up in the industry during the quarter, Capuano said, noting that though those numbers are still below 2019 levels, the company is confident that it will return to pre-pandemic levels of mid-single-digit net rooms growth over the next several years.
「今年第一季所面對的財務負擔已開始減輕,而新開發案工程的動工已增加。」他補充說,「雖然目前所見的績效數據仍低於2019年的水準,但我們有信心在未來幾年內會回到疫情前的水準,即中個位數的淨客房增長率(即4%~6%)。」

By the Numbers (數據探討)

Marriott’s first quarter comparable systemwide constant dollar RevPAR grew by 96.5% worldwide compared to the first quarter of 2021, according to the earnings release. That breaks down to 99.1% in the U.S. and Canada and 88.5% in international markets.
根據萬豪集團所公佈財報顯示,若與2021年第一季度相比,在全集團可比定價美元的基礎上,今年同期的全球平均客房收益成長了 96.5%,至於單就美加地區則是相對增長了99.1%,而美加地區以外的全球市場則是88.5%
Compared to the first quarter of 2019, comparable systemwide constant-dollar RevPAR was down 19.4% worldwide. It was down 14.5% in the U.S. and Canada and 31.7% in international markets.
若將今年第一季與2019年同期相比,在全集團可比定價美元的基礎上,全球平均客房收益下降19.4%,而單就美加地區則是相對下滑14.5%,而美加地區以外的全球市場則是減少31.7%。
Marriott reported net income of $377 million, an improvement from the net loss of $11 million in the first quarter of 2021. It reported total revenue of almost $4.2 billion, an 81% year-over-year increase. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization totaled $759 million compared to $296 million in the first quarter of 2021.
萬豪集團的季報顯示淨收入為3.77億美金,相較於2021年同期的淨損1100萬美金是個改善狀況。同時財報也顯示總收益為近42億美金,意即81%的年度增長。調整後的息稅折舊攤銷前盈餘為7.59億美金,而2021年同期則是2.96億美金。
By the end of the quarter, Marriott’s net debt was $8.5 billion, which represents a total debt of $9.5 billion less cash and cash equivalents of $1 billion. By the end of 2021, its net debt was $8.7 billion, with total debt of $10.1 billion less cash and cash equivalents of $1.4 billion.
截至2022年第一季為止,萬豪集團的淨債務值為85億美金,意即總債務95億美金減去現金及現金等價物10億美金。至於截止2021年年底的淨債務值為87億美金,即總債務101億美金減去現金及現金等價物14億美金。
As of press time, Marriott’s stock was trading at $177.64, up 8.4% year to date. The NASDAQ Composite Index was down 21.4% for the same period.
截稿前,萬豪集團的股價為177.64美金,較年初上漲了8.4%,至於那斯達克綜合指數則是下跌21.4%。

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